Decision Support and Strategic Assessment

• Apply the principles of socio-economic analysis based on the use of cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis and feasibility risk assessment
• Identify, organise and assess accessible data material in the context of both a quantitative and a qualitative approach
• Analyse and determine suitable parameters and variables made use of in the socio-economic analysis
• Account for the various aspects of uncertainties within major investment projects
• Implement and perform a feasibility risk assessment using Monte Carlo simulation
• Implement and account for the methodology behind a composite analysis based upon cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis, and feasibility risk assessment
• Identify supplementing criteria to include in a strategic analysis from a sustainability viewpoint
• Design and apply a comprehensive decision support model for a large investment problem
• Communicate the chosen solution methods and performed analyses for a given problem area through a technical report

The course treats basic and advanced theory and methodology in the assessment/appraisal/evaluation of major investment projects for transport infrastructure. However, the methods applied are universal and can be used for other types of projects as well. Knowledge about transport infrastructure projects is not a prerequisite to participating in the course.

The overall purpose of the course is to apply socio-economic analysis using cost-benefit analysis (CBA), strategic analysis using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), and feasibility risk assessment and combine them into a composite analysis for a pool of investment projects to provide the best possible decision support. The following topics will be treated in lectures and exercises, where it is assumed that the student holds some basic knowledge of economics:

Socio-economic analysis: Basic methodology behind the CBA. The students will learn how to apply the method to analyze major investments over a long-time horizon.

Feasibility risk assessment: Theory and methodology concerning uncertainty calculations and the concept of Optimism Bias. A topic here is determining various uncertain elements in the socio-economic analysis.

Strategic analysis: Theory and methodology concerning measuring non-quantifiable impacts, which often are strategic and hold the potential to improve the decision support. The students will get acquainted with different MCDA assessment techniques depending on the decision situation and how to combine these with the cost-benefit analysis and feasibility risk assessment results. The aim is to include the sustainability perspective in the final recommendations.

The course participants work in groups to apply and achieve practical knowledge about the analysis methods and concepts. It is expected that the students can clarify/account/argue for the chosen impacts/criteria and the model solutions in connection with the report work and the written examination.

The main course content consists of lectures and group exercises with plenary discussions.

12772/42178/42381/42576

Lectures, exercises, and a final group report delivered in two parts.