Epidemiological methods for surveillance of infectious diseases

• Select the most appropriate modelling approach and diagnostic tools for a given epidemiological purpose
• Sketch, in a team, an integrated surveillance programme for a zoonotic disease, including choice of methodologies and tools
• Explain and evaluate the different components of a surveillance system
• Define performance measures of diagnostic tests
• Explain how the test performance and the sampling design can affect the performance of a surveillance system
• Describe the results of mathematical models that predict the spread of infectious diseases in a defined population
• Analyse and interpret data from existing national and international surveillance programmes of infectious diseases, antimicrobial usage and antimicrobial resistance
• Perform, in a team, investigation of food and water associated disease outbreaks
• Explain how genomic data (WGS) from pathogens can be used to elucidate transmission pathways and trace the sources of infections
• Interpret epidemiological studies that investigate drivers/risk factors for infectious diseases or the efficacy of vaccines/treatment
• Select the appropriate study type and statistical test for a given epidemiological investigation
• Estimate and interpret burden of disease measures (DALY) for prioritization of interventions

History of Infectious Diseases: evolution of infectious diseases throughout human history and their societal impact; historical successes and failures in disease control; Types of Infectious Agents: unique characteristics and challenges posed by viral, bacterial, and parasitic diseases and the growing threat of antimicrobial resistance; Zoonoses: diseases that cross species boundaries (zoonoses) and their implications for human health and wildlife conservation.
Surveillance Systems Design and Evaluation: design of effective surveillance systems and evaluation of surveillance components. Early outbreak detection and monitoring of disease trends; Epidemiological Studies: design and interpretation of epidemiological studies. Difference between causality and association. Evaluate treatment options and their impact on disease outcomes; Modeling Disease Spread: modelling approaches to simulate disease dynamics in a population. Predicting outbreaks, assessing intervention strategies, and understanding transmission patterns; Drivers of Infectious Diseases: global, regional, and local factors influencing disease prevalence. One Health—connecting animal, human, and environmental health; Identifying Risk Factors: risk factors contributing to disease transmission and prioritization of interventions based on evidence; Genomics and Prediction: whole genome sequencing data (WGS) for disease surveillance. Prediction of pathogen behavior, drug resistance, and emerging variants. Precision epidemiology; Big Data and Digital Epidemiology: data-driven approaches for real-time monitoring. Role of artificial intelligence. Ethical considerations and privacy concerns.

This course focuses on the planning, application and interpretation of different quantitative epidemiological methods in the context of surveillance of infectious diseases. An introduction to epidemiology can be obtained in the course 23256, while an introduction to infectious diseases can be obtained in the course 23205. Other courses, such as 23263 and 23272, offer more in depth knowledge about specific epidemiological methods addressed during this course.

Lectures, exercises, group work